Weather

Layer 1 — for the user1What you do with it tracks the code

On weer.swarp.nl you read at the top the global net-weather reading: one number from 0 to 100 with a state. The higher the number, the calmer; the lower, the more tension. The four states are:

• quietCalm. Little tension, the net is stable.
• unsettledUnsettled. Raised tension, active but not yet threatening.
• turbulentTurbulent. High tension; a greater chance of a discharge.
• stormStorm. Extreme tension — the heaviest weather.

Beside the reading you see a direction (rising or falling, with a Δ) and the cap-weighted variant, in which larger markets weigh more heavily. Below it breaks down into three regions — Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific — each with its leading stock indices, and into the business climate per country (NL, DE, FR, US). Below the header runs a line of signals: dated moments when the state flipped. That is the history of the weather, not a forecast.

Layer 2 — for the thinker2The idea & the philosophy enduring

Weather measures tension in the financial net — not sentiment, not price prediction. You read it the way you read weather: the state describes today, the gauges warn about what may come.

A weather report does not tell you it will rain at three o'clock tomorrow; it tells you whether the day is calm or threatening, so you know whether to take a coat. That is the founding choice: the instrument speaks not in predicted prices but in states. Behind that choice sits a model the whole MAZE family shares — tension that builds up (loading) and discharges. The same language carries the MAZE-Bank (tension and decay) and the MAZE itself.

That is why Weather belongs to the family as the outer weather: the bank reads this instrument to know what weather a circle shelters from. There the weather steers the appetite (ample, cautious, reticent), never an individual judgement. And the deepest rule is a promise, not a function: research, not investment advice — the instrument measures, it does not advise.

Layer 3 — for the builder3How it works — model & API

The model — the two proven gauges enduring

The heart of the instrument is the discharge probabilities on a frozen double-blind yardstick (fixed on 5 September 2026). Of all the sensor layers that were tested, these are the only two that survived the double-blind test — the rest was deliberately removed.

There are also layers that did not pass the test as predictors, but that give context — the VIX (tension intensity), the space weather (AP index, explicitly not a market predictor) and Fear & Greed (human sentiment). The distinction itself is the method: the instrument separates the gauges that provably warn from the layers that only colour. That principle of separation is enduring; which layers sit in it can move.

The API tracks the code

Weather is deliberately machine-readable, so that other services can read the outer weather without opening the page.

Layer 4 — for the connector4Links, sources & further tracks the code

• the serviceweer.swarp.nl — the live instrument.
• machine readweer.swarp.nl/api/status — the JSON output.
• reads thisThe MAZE-Bank uses /api/status in its layered risk reading.
• rests onthe MAZE — the self-addressing net the family stands on.
• data sourcesMarket indices live; the business climate on a frozen, calibrated yardstick from CBS, Eurostat and FRED.
• publisherConstable Research B.V., Leiden — research, not investment advice.
• backall manuals.