Financial Weather

Layer 1 — for the user1What you do with it tracks the code

Financial Weather reads the tension in the global market net and says in weather words how it stands: calm, unsettled, turbulent, storm. A loading gauge reads how full the net is: discharged, building, loading, overloaded. The instrument measures tension — no sentiment, no price forecast, no investment advice. This is a test version, and the app itself is in Dutch. Every screen below sits in the navigation bar; next to them a link to the forum on support.swarp.nl/forum and a language toggle.

/Global Netstart screen

• Signals at the top: up to six recent signals — state changes per layer, elevated discharge probabilities, climate directions — with date and colour; a dot marks what is new since your last visit. Empty: "no active signals".
• The global weather score (0–100) with the state word, the capital-weighted score, and "today pulls: …" — the index with the largest daily move.
• Gauge 1, the loading gauge: an arc from 0 to 100 with four zones (discharged, building, loading, overloaded).
• The world map with the three regions Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific coloured by score; hover a region for score and state.
• VIX (tension intensity), and two own sensors: space-weather loading (Ap index, explicitly "not a market predictor") and human sentiment (Fear & Greed).
• Gauge 2, the discharge probabilities: per stock index the probability of a discharge within five days (base rate 4–6%) and per country (NL, DE, US, GB) the crisis probability over the coming year (base rate 2–3%). Both gauges are frozen and double-blind tested (5 Sept 2026).
• On the right the three regions, each with state, trend, score, loading and a diagnostic tick, plus their indices with price and daily change.
• Nothing to do here but look; the screen refreshes itself (weather every minute, loading every two hours). Loading: "Calibrating Sensors…", on failure: "Signal Lost".

/historyTimeline

• One chart with the weather score of the three regions over time and the VIX dashed on the right axis; on the right the latest score and word per region, a VIX card, and the key (75–100 calm, 45–74 unsettled, 25–44 turbulent, 0–24 storm).
• Pick the range with 1W, 1M, 3M or 1Y; click a region card to show or hide its line.

/klimaatClimatebusiness climate

• Pick a country: Netherlands, Germany, France, United States. You see the climate score, the state word and the twelve-month direction arrow.
• The film: the score per month with the fixed boundaries 65, 45 and 25. Below it a card per series (source, latest value, direction, sparkline, the frozen 1990–2018 yardstick).
• Sources: CBS, Kadaster, Eurostat, ECB, FRED and market prices — no surveys, no expert opinion. At the bottom: "join the forum"; every state change is posted there.

/methodeMethod

• Text only: what the instrument is, the two frozen gauges with their formulas and blind AUC, what was removed from the model (including the geomagnetic layers and the rate spread), the climate board, the papers on constable.blog, the change log and "who and what not" (research, not investment advice).

/tradeTrading simvirtual capital

• A simulation with €10,000 of virtual money: total value, profit/loss, free balance, daily result; open positions (at most five) and the transaction log with buy/sell, signal word, amount and reason per line.
• Buttons: Best deal now (one evaluation, possibly a simulated trade), Preview, Auto on/off (every 15 minutes), Reset. The strategy rules are on the screen. No real money, no advice — it is the model's test rig.

/networkFishing netcorrelation matrix

• Seventeen indices as knots around a VIX core; thread thickness is correlation strength (cyan positive, red negative), knot colour is loading. Four numbers: active threads, mean and maximum correlation, strong threads.
• Slide min. correlation to filter weak threads; recompute with the button. As tension rises all correlations pull towards 1 — the signature of an approaching discharge.

/scoreboardScoreboardpublic and testable

• Think along — human against machine: enter your name, pick a region, set with the slider your probability of a storm day within ten trading days and click Lock in. Your guess is scored exactly like the models (Brier score); afterwards you see whether you or the panel is ahead.
• The panel: who takes part, with number of forecasts and Brier. Four numbers: accuracy (hit/miss against the base rate), forecasts (pending), cumulative result of the simulation, win rate.
• Walk-forward validation over 25 years per region ("skill proven" or "unproven"), calibration (stated against observed, overconfidence in points), the model panel. At the bottom the forecasts (region, probability, date, hit/miss/pending) and the transaction log.

/dagrapportDaily report

• The weather report of one day: the global state in a sentence (score, VIX), the regional weather scores, the loading state per region and the open forecasts.
• Page a day back or forward; on today you can have a new report generated; download the full history as CSV.

/abonnementBecome a member

• Without a link: enter a panel name (optional) and your e-mail address and click Become a member. You get a confirmation mail with a link (valid 48 hours); no password. Membership gives one SWARP identity: forecasting on the scoreboard and joining the forum in Support with the same address.
• With the link from the mail: manage your subscription — panel name, two ticks (tension alerts when a region's loading gauge exceeds 75; daily weather report every morning), and unsubscribe completely.

/personalPersonalyour own knot

• One form, once: date and place of birth. If you are a member and have a blueprint in Support, they are filled in from there ("nothing to enter again"); otherwise enter them here or make the blueprint on support.swarp.nl/blauwdruk.
• Then: your personal tension score in its own words (discharged, active mesh, loading, maximum loading), a daily advice about conduct, timing and energy (explicitly not about market positions), the composition per region, the Human Design coupling with the Rave Mandala and the alignment pointer, the nine-week gate-transit calendar, and the tension course personal against global.
• Change clears your data and shows the form again.

e-mailWhat lands in your inbox

• Confirmation mail on signing up. Daily weather report: global score, regions, VIX, loading, the discharge probabilities, the business climate and the latest state changes. Tension alert when a region becomes overloaded (at most one per region per six hours). Change alert when a layer (a region, the world weather or a climate) turns to turbulent or storm, within the hour, at most one per layer per six hours. Every mail ends with "not investment advice" and a management link.

Layer 2 — for the thinker2The idea & the philosophy enduring

Financial Weather measures tension in the financial net — not sentiment, not price prediction. You read it the way you read weather: the state describes today, the gauges warn about what may come.

A weather report does not tell you it will rain at three o'clock tomorrow; it tells you whether the day is calm or threatening, so you know whether to take a coat. That is the founding choice: the instrument speaks not in predicted prices but in states. Behind that choice sits a model the whole MAZE family shares — tension that builds up (loading) and discharges. The same language carries the MAZE-Bank (tension and decay) and the MAZE itself.

That is why Financial Weather belongs to the family as the outer weather: the bank reads this instrument to know what weather a circle shelters from. There the weather steers the appetite (ample, cautious, reticent), never an individual judgement. And the deepest rule is a promise, not a function: research, not investment advice — the instrument measures, it does not advise.

Layer 3 — for the builder3How it works — model & API

The model — the two proven gauges enduring

The heart of the instrument is the discharge probabilities on a frozen double-blind yardstick (fixed on 5 September 2026). Of all the sensor layers that were tested, these are the only two that survived the double-blind test — the rest was deliberately removed.

There are also layers that did not pass the test as predictors, but that give context — the VIX (tension intensity), the space weather (AP index, explicitly not a market predictor) and Fear & Greed (human sentiment). The distinction itself is the method: the instrument separates the gauges that provably warn from the layers that only colour. That principle of separation is enduring; which layers sit in it can move.

The API tracks the code

Financial Weather is deliberately machine-readable, so that other services can read the outer weather without opening the page.

Layer 4 — for the connector4Links, sources & further tracks the code

• the serviceweer.swarp.nl — the live instrument.
• machine readweer.swarp.nl/api/status — the JSON output.
• reads thisThe MAZE-Bank uses /api/status in its layered risk reading.
• blueprint sharedSince 14-9 the personal panel pre-fills birth date and place from your SWARP blueprint in Support (via the subscription token and the shared secret); you never enter them twice. No blueprint yet? Then once here, or at support.swarp.nl/blauwdruk.
• reports directlySince 14-9 the instrument also watches the regions (Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific) as their own layer: a change appears in /api/signalen and in the forum thread "Het marktweer", and on a change to turbulent or storm one mail goes to the alert subscribers within the hour (at most one per layer per six hours). The instrument reads loading, not prices; it gives no buy or sell advice.
• also reads thisThe Passage reads /api/signalen every hour: a state change only becomes an address in the net if it still holds after a day — the Financial Weather code itself is untouched (since 13-9-2026).
• rests onthe MAZE — the self-addressing net the family stands on.
• data sourcesMarket indices live; the business climate on a frozen, calibrated yardstick from CBS, Eurostat and FRED.
• publisherConstable Research B.V., Leiden — research, not investment advice.
• backall manuals.